Cryptocurrency analyst PlanB says the Bitcoin price could rise to $864,000 in four years, beating his stock to flow model.
In an interview on September 4, PlanB stated that he made a conservative bet when he predicted that Bitcoin would reach $288,000. PlanB suggests that the future price of Bitcoin could be much higher than his initial prediction.
“I’m on $288,000 as an average value. $100,000 would be very nice, too. But if you just follow the math, if you just follow the data, and I don’t mean the time-series model. So we’re not looking at Bitcoin only. We’re looking at gold, silver, diamonds, real estate, all that stuff. It’s $288,000. That’s an average value.
It could overshoot, like three times, like it did the last phases. I don’t want to mention the number. I try to be conservative all the time. But let’s say a 2x or a 3x from that $288,000, and then it crashes again, of course.”
PlanB is a Dutch institutional investor with a legal and quantitative finance background. He is the brain behind the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model for Bitcoin. The model uses scarcity to quantify bitcoin value. The model can be used for Bitcoin as well as gold, silver, and other assets.
The original BTC S2F model is based on monthly S2F and price data. Many quantitative analysts around the world have analyzed the relationship between S2F and BTC price.
The transition of water helps to understand the S2F model. The classic example of water is that it exists in four different phases:
Water has different properties in each phase. Bitcoin experiences similar transitions over time:
🔵 Proof of concept
🔵 Financial Asset
After the creation of the Bitcoin whitepaper, a phase of achieving parity with the USD takes place, following which gold parity is achieved. After this phase, Bitcoin experiences increasing recognition as a financial asset with enhanced legal clarity and greater transactions in financial markets.